Monday, March 14, 2005

Guess What? Yet Another Demonstration in Lebanon. Bahiyya Hariri's Speech: So Rafiq Hariri's sister, Bahiyya, gave the surprise speech of the day in the today's demonstration (not to be confused with yesterday's demonstration or tomorrow's or the day after tomorrow's). I met Bahiyya twice and will report on that later. I was at the time hoping to get the female members of the Lebanese parliament (all three of them) to start a Female Caucus. They have that in all parliaments. I talked to Bahiyyah and Na'ilah Mu`awwad (the former presidential candidate and a new leader of the opposition), and discovered that those two (who now are members of the same opposition movement) cannot stand one another, and did not hide that from me. I reported yesterday that I heard that the Hariri family is NOT happy with the course and slogans of the opposition, and the speech today confirmed it. Her speech (I am sure that Bush will not receive his copy as it may disturb him and may conflict with the attempt at the validation of the Bush's doctrine common in shallow US media. The Washington Post reported that there were signs of "thank you Bush" and I saw tons of pictures and did not see one picture of that, and none of the ME TV news reported that. I am sure it exists, but leave it to the Post to report on the least visible sign. Also, tell the expert reporter of the Washington Post that the last census in Lebanon was in 1932 NOT in 1957.). Her speech could have been written by Hasan Nasrallah. She even started the speech by "In the Name of the Merciful, the most Compassionate." The largely Christian crowd (you can tell by the chants and by the cheers during the speeches--this is Lebanon) (although there were thousands of middle class Beirut Sunnis--and other poor Sunnis were paid to come, I am told. One person reported to me payment of fees to poor Palestinians in the camp to attend. This is not to deny that this was a massive demonstration, and that many Christians and many Druze and many Sunnis have real problem with this Lebanese government and the Syrian domination in Lebanon. And I am in no way trying to deny that those demonstrators represent one of the many Lebanons that are competing nowadays. Let us just not reduce the many Lebanons to one side, or one party, or one leader. There are many Lebanons, and many Lebanese with different, nay divergent, visions--if that is the word, or maybe fantasy or mirage--of the future Lebanon.) was silent at different junctures of the speech. The speech was a summation and reiteration of the strong Arab nationalist orientations of traditional Beirut Sunni public opinion. She did not sound as part of the opposition at all. She went on about strong support for the Palestinian cause, opposition to Israel, and defense of relationships with "sisterly" Syria. Her words on Syria and Palestine earned her praise from the Hizbullah and Amal quarters. Bahiyya or Fu'ad As-Sanyurah may be the next prime ministers of Lebanon. I would say that the days of the president of Lebanon are numbered, but the sectarian-minded Maronite patriarch would not stand for the resignation of the Maronite president. Everybody else, yes, but not the president. He may serve the rest of his term, under a strong and powerful prime minister, unless of course there is evidence of Lebanese Army intelligence complicity in the assassination of Hariri. In that case, all bets are off. The massive demonstration today only made me more worried, and more nervous about the future of Lebanon. Again, it takes very little to trigger sedition in the country. Just imagine what would happen if assassinations and counter-assassinations are perpetrated. With sticks and rocks, they will fight. Hariri also stressed over and over her attachment to At-Ta'if accords, and reminded the audience that her late brother was a big supporter of Ta'if. That is significant because this was a message to the largely right-wing Christian quarters many of whom were not happy with Ta'if because they felt that it reflected a balance of power that was not in their favor. Once Syria leaves, the Lebanese opposition coalition will soon crumble. What are they in agreement over? They do not even agree on preferred movies and music. Some people in East Beirut would not admit that they watch Arabic movies. It is not "modern" and "western" you know. There is so much anger in the streets. I spoke to a Shi`ite born woman (not religious and Marxist) and she told me that she has been made to feel her Shi`ite identity as of late. She feels that rising anti-Shi`te prejudices are way too blatant and overt to ignore or dismiss. There were so many blatantly racist and sectarian anti-Shi`ite and anti-Syrian posters and signs today in the "civilized"--they love to use that silly word in the right-wing opposition--opposition demonstration. The Western press will not notice that. They will only notice that one sign out of thousands that mentioned Bush. Just compare French and UK press with US press these days. Even when you disagree with UK and French press, they give a fuller picture. The wisest columnist in the Arab world, Joseph Samahah of As-Safir, is right that there is no way for Syria and Lebanon to avoid an international investigation of Hariri's assassination. Robert Fisk is also reporting that head of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon, Rustum Ghazalah, not to be confused with Rustum Satterfield, told the international fact-finding mission that he only deals with the "protection of Syrian troops" in Lebanon. This is the same Ghazalah who used to interfere in municipal affairs and parliamentary lists and appointments at the Lebanese University. Who will he fool? People keep asking me: are the Syrian and Lebanese governments that stupid? I say: yes. Of course. Look at the record. I salute Lebanese member of parliament (and former minister) Ghazi Al-`Aridi. This close advisor to Jumblat (and formerly of Hariri too) and prominent member of the opposition went out of his way in his speech to denounce Lebanese racism against Syrians. (Al-`Aridi (as he once told me) used to spend so much time trying to mediate between Hariri and Lahhud who were often on non-speaking terms). But I find no heroes in Lebanon. Never have. Former prime minister Salim Huss is trying without an success to chart a "third way". But he is too weak and too nice for a place like Lebanon. The Saudi-owned Arab media are really slanting the story of the Lebanon. Al-Jazeera and As-Safir have been the most objective. Al-Arabiyya is going full force but its bureau chief in Beirut was in Hariri's pocket (almost literally-- as was the bureau chief of Al-Hayat, etc). What to do? Where to go? To the store, of course. To fetch some oranges.