Monday, October 21, 2013

A Jordanian view of the Pew poll on perceptions of Saudi Arabia in the Arab world

From a reader:
"Longtime follower of your blog living in Jordan. I saw the recent Pew Research statistics on your blog and I have to say serious questions have to be raised about the credibility of the information. I can tell you firsthand that there is absolutely no way that the favorable views of Saudi are anywhere near 88%. I have yet to meet anyone in Jordan that holds a positive view Saudi. These are the following reasons. 

1)Large segments of Jordanians unfortunately continue to have a romanticized view of Saddam Hussein and at pro Palestine demonstrations his name is often evoked. This view of Saddam is based solely on his position visa vi Israel/US and has nothing to do with his war against Iran or his own human rights record. Alot of Jordanians were thus not just against the Iraq war but with Saddam Hussein. They rightfully attribute a large portion of the blame for the destruction of Iraq in the 2003 war on the Gulf countries (particularly Saudi) for enabling the invasion. 
2) Jordanians do not have short histories. The position of Saudi during the Lebanon-Israel war as well as during the events in Gaza 2009 (no one forgets how Saudi refused to attend the Qatar emergency summit) were widely despised and condemned by Jordanians. In the most recent Gaza conflict their position was equally reprehensible also.   
3)Their role as a counterrevolutionary force during the recent upheavals in the Middle East has also not gone unnoticed. People remember how they offered 5 billion dollars to Hosni Mubarak in order to keep him on his thrown, how their GCC deal in Yemen led to a election with one contestant. When it came to Syria people were more nuanced on their view of the Saudi position believing that they could not sit by idly and watch the events take place and that perhaps the interests of the Syrian people simply converged with those of Saudi. The facade was removed in the aftermath of the Sisi coup in Egypt where Saudi was quite delighted to financially/politically support the killing and jailing of thousands of Islamists. 
4) This position on Egypt enraged the Islamists of Jordan who I believe were hoping for a accommodation to be reached between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Gulf, especially after Morsi choose Saudi as his first country to visit. The position of Saudi on the Sisi coup had the unintended effect of increasing solidarity (even among some Islamists) with the Bahraini uprising, as people became unwilling to accept the Saudi Sunni Shia narrative of the events. The result of all this is that people of all political orientations now in Jordan (leftist/nationalist/Islamist) have their own reasons for opposing the House of Saud.
5) The case of Khaled Natoor is another important reason. Natoor is a Jordanian activist who protested outside the Bahraini embassy in March 2011 after Saudi troops rolled through Bahrain. A year and a half later when he had to go to Saudi for business he was arrested upon arrival in Riyadh and held for two months without access to a lawyer (imagine arrested for taking part in a protest in Jordan and was given a visa with the intent to arrest him). The case inflamed passions of the activist groups in Jordan who were outraged and attempted to protest in front of the Saudi embassy multiple times but were not allowed by the Jordanian authorities. When Natoor returned he was greeted to a hero's welcome both at the airport and in local media channels. His arrest also had the effect of increasing solidarity with the Bahrain uprising.
6) Saudi own human rights records. 
7) Even pro regime people in Jordan are angered by the fact that financial aid from Saudi is attached with conditions about actions the Saudis want the regime to take visa vis Syria. 

Simply put their is just no way that its favorability is 88%. 50% would be a stretch. While I obviously do bring my own biases in coming to this conclusion I really do urge you to confirm with other people the mood of the Jordanian street toward Saudi. Conversely I also want to be given one legitimate reason why a Jordanian would view the House of Saud in a favorable light. If you use this post cite as anonymous. "

PS Now, this is Angry Arab: I share the skepticism and remind readers of my previous doubts about the methodology of US polling organizations in the Arab world. I was rather shocked at the results from Pakistan, for example, where I found the population to be utterly opposed to House of Saud.