Friday, March 30, 2012

Is the Syrian uprising finished?

Comrade Talal sent me this (I cite with his permission):  "The uprising is finished. It would drag on for a while and may go into a chronic phase, but the situation has the feel of a regime that is now secure. Aljazeera overplayed its hand and lost its reputation in the process. Shame on its management and the Qataris, for that (perhaps unintended) experiment of freewheeling TV coverage was important for the Arab world, and they squandered in a few months what they have built for a decade.

I think the question for Syria is this: as the regime consolidates its authority, what sort of retribution would the regime undertake in Lebanon?

The other issue is that the reluctance of the regime to hit back at Israel after destruction of the nascent Syrian nuclear facility and other provocations such as the flyovers over Bashar's house, the assassinations of Mughnieh and the Syrian general in charge of covert activities etc, all have cost the regime dearly in terms of the dissolution of its authority and legitimacy. It may be necessary for Bashar to up the ante vis a vis Israel."