Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Hizbullah and its polling firm: It is fired

If you follow Hizbullah's speeches (this year or prior) you reach this conclusion: Hizbullah relies on an reliable polling firm for its perception of public opinion in Lebanon. Hasan Nasrallah has repeatedly asked that the matter of "the arms of the resistance" be put to a referendum. He clearly assumes that the vote would be in Hizbullah's favor. The discourse of the opposition (Hizbullah in particular) was so cocky and triumphant over the year. They were so certain that they would win, partly because their ally `Awn argued that the 1960 electoral law guarantees his victory. Here, again `Awn has been relying on an unreliable polling firm. In fact, all polling firms in Lebanon has proven their unreliability: the Ad-Duwaliyyah firm predicted a 3 seat edge for the opposition; Kamal Fghali predicted at least seven; and Statistics Lebanon predicted a tie. Not one firm predicted a win for March 14: and March 14 firms were not predicting a victory for them either.