Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Who is running Syria: the war within the ruling familyr

All is not well within the ruling family of Syria, it seems.  Durayd Al-Asad (son of Rif`at, and first cousin of Bashshar who has stayed in Syria and is very close to Bashshar and has been supporting him politically) has suddenly broke with his cousins, the Makhlufs and with some advisers of Bashshar, like Bahjat Sulayman and his children.  Durayd seems to be a good writer and uses language effectively.  It is not clear to what extent this fissure is politically significant but the outburst against the Makhluf can easily bring sympathy regardless of the name of Durayd.  From what received from a reliable inside source, the Makhluf seem to have become more powerful than ever, politically and economically.  They of course control Military Intelligence and may be behind the murder two weeks ago of a liaison officer with the Qataris who was about to leave for Jordan.  I am also receiving information that Russia is now running the show overall: just like it did in 1982 when Hafidh was ill and Rif`at tried to assert itself.  I am told that you can see Russians all over Tartus: they are expanding their naval base there.  Asaf Shawkat's recent appointment was not significant and he is still marginalized and punished over issues I had mentioned before.  I also learned that the Makhlufs have sent a message to the Americans that they are 1) willing to expel the Russians from Syrai; 2) to revive and energize the Saudi peace plan and re-enter negotiations with Israel in return for a reduction of pressures on Syria.  The language that Durayd is using on Facebook is very strong and has specifics about corruption by key members of the ruling clan.