Sunday, September 19, 2010

"The oil weapon for another war" (two translations)

Khalid kindly translated per my suggestion the article by comrade Fawwaz about the Saudi arms deal:

"Saudi Arabia has announced the “Deal of the century” to buy American “F-15s”, and around 150 Military Choppers at the time when the negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians had taken place. The timing between the two events could have been a coincidence, but it’s a coincidence that does not abandon the significant evidence of the new forming relationship between Arab Oil, Israel, and the Palestinian cause.

The United States is the biggest Arms dealer in the world, its arms Industry is the umbilical cord that feeds its economy. And the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the biggest client for the American Weaponry. Its military expenditure has reached $11.2bn in the years of 2005 and 2008. Its not confidential that the purchases of Oil producing countries of American arms, as well as operating trillions of dollars in the purchase of American Treasury Bonds like the private sector, has played an important role in reducing the commercial imbalance between Saudi and the US. Beside that, it should be added that the role of this Aero-Deal (And another Navy-Deal which could follow) would compensate a good percentage of the Trillionic’ Military Expenditure which the US has spent on the Iraq and Afghanistan & “International Terrorism”

There is no need to go in depth on whether the $60bn deal will affect the military balance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Military Israeli analysts they don’t see any impact to that. And also supplying KSA with new F-15 fighters has came after an American announcement to supply Israel with “F-35” which is more developed and enhanced.

There is no need for Israel to mention the reasons for the deal to be commenced, the military analyst told “Haaretz” that the new element that deal has added to the military situation in the region “not all the arms in the region are poised on Israel

Its not strange not to mention Israel in what the political analysts (Lebanese) for this unjustified gigantic spending. But what’s really peculiar that this negligence does not draw their attention and makes them wonder! The kingdom appears under their pens threatened from the south from Somalia, “Al Qaida” Organization, and the Hotheen Military Movement on the borders with Yemen. To the North, its facing a domestic religious-sectarian war in Iraq, and the biggest peril is Iran which is pursuing the Nuclear Weapons.

Its hard to imagine any role that the Air force can play to defend against “Al Qaida” or to repel religious-sectarian wars, on the assumption that Iraq will carry it out no doubt, on the same level, the Hoothey threat can be serious, the experiences indicated that Sa’ada Wars is approached by the Yemeni Ruler who is the “War Contractor” once to attract Saudi Money and Saudi Military support, and once to blackmail or attract the Qatari money and the Qatari conduit.

But, what role the Air-Force will play against the Iranian nuclear “Peril”? The only answer is to launch operational assaults against the Iranian Nuclear Facilities, lets assume that this is the only excuse to spend $60bn, it is a little late, its more likely that Iran will pull off in producing a nuclear weapon. If the latter succeeded in doing so before the end of the 10 years required to deliver the Jetfighters to Saudi Arabia, train their pilots on them, and absorbing the new tech, so the scenario will be like “Hit and Run” as they say. In this case the KSA in case of a new war in the region, will be forced to cry for help to bring the  American Forces and their allies for their protection as they did in 1991, so the planes will be like complementary gifts for Saudi to accept the reality of the Iranian Nukes rather than being means to prevent it.

On the other hand, Its not really clear the role of the deal in building competitive military ability & Saudi Prevention to face the Iranian capabilities. The gap is very large between the two countries, Iran (Military wise) supersedes Saudi Arabia in all kinds of arms, they ultimately surpass them in artillery, military rockets, and Navy. The arbitrator here is the big military variety in the number of military forces between the two countries. The difference goes for Iran in a ratio of 5:1. beside this, the difference should be added to the marginal maneuvers between the two countries, where KSA spends 10% of their GDP on arms and they are consumers, where Iran spends 3% and they are producers.

And the worse of it all, that “Boeing” the producer of “F-15” and the one who taking the big cut from the $60bn, will ensure the job continuation for 77 thousands of their employees in 44 American states. This is not the first time  where an arms military company presents a billion dollar deal as a mean to save the American labor from unemployment. so Its looks like those $60bn the main purpose for them is to ensure job opportunities for American Labor and an aggregated profit for “Boeing” and the ones alike who produces arms. That’s not to mention the commissions for Saudi, Arab and foreign brokers and conduits.

There is no meaning here to use that money in the “Continued Arabian Development” or the Arabs reaching the pinnacle “Knowledgeable Society” as the reports invites to “Arabian Humanitarian Development” or what Muhammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum society promises us or to finance the sold “Arabian Development Project”. But there is a meaning in saying that Arabian Saudi has all the benefit in residing towards arms and in search for better ways to employ their capital for the benefit of their citizens.

 Its much better that the $60bn contributed in hiring 77 thousand employees and labors in Saudi Arabia especially when the Saudis represent only 38% of the working force and to contribute in reducing unemployment, especially the unemployment of graduates that reaches to 20%. In the Worlds richest oil country, which its debt has crossed the barrier of $200bn due to its continual finance to the American Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and extravagance spending, the 120 thousand millionaires who have among themselves $500bn with 20-30% of the population living under the line of poverty and child labor in the shadow of social hierarchy. If we scrutinize the view in perspective of  War on Terror (Without Double Standards) its better to listen to the warning which was called by Dr. Turkey Al Hamad when he warned against the elimination of Medium Hierarchy of Saudi Arabia. He indicated that whenever poverty rises, fundamentalist rises. And the Saudi is a major source of fundamentalist and Terrorism.

On the other hand, as long as there is an Arabian Leader who can by pen stroke grant American Arms monopoly such deal, and force his countries, citizens to spend $60bn without the need for anyone to question his decision except himself, or without representative control or authority elected or designated we can be sure that the United States of America will be the exalted advocate to policy, military, security of the inherited and individual autocratic regimes in the region, and the hypocrisy will continue around the human fields, and the only thing we have is to believe more that the “American Project” that aims to apply its democracy on our countries as indicated by liberals or feared by Islamists, and those who connive like them from indigenous and leftists, is no more than pipe dreams.

KSA (the sponsor of “Moderate” countries) did not come to the inauguration of the new rounds of peace negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians like Egypt and Jordan, they have offered something more valuable than the Petro colic contribution, they offered the announcement of change in their fighting beliefs! "

Mintra and Samya provided this translation:

"Oil Weapon … War on a Different Front

The Saudi "deal of the century"  to acquire American F15 fighter jets and around 150 military helicopters was announced on the eve of the start of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. The timing might be a coincidence, but  that does not undermine the deep significance of the new developments in the relation between Arab oil, Israel and the Palestinian Cause.

The United States is the worlds leading seller of weapons, its military industry is the engine that drives the economy. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) surpasses the Arab countries as the largest buyer of the these arms to the tune of $11.2 billion spent between 2005-2008. It is not a secret that these acquisitions of US arms, along with the trillions of dollars invested in US treasury bonds and private sector plays a major role in reducing the current trade deficit between it and the US. Other uses for this deal, and a possible subsequent naval arms deal valued at $30 billion, is partial compensation to the US, for the trillions of dollars in military spending on the US wars on Iraq, Afghanistan and "Global Terrorism".

There is no need to seriously consider whether $60 billion worth of arms deals are going to affect the relative military capabilities or the defense balance between Israel and KSA. Israeli military analysts don't see any evidence to support such impact. Furthermore, supplying KSA with new F15 fighter jets, was preceded by another US arms deal supplying Israel with superior and more advanced F35 jets.

There is barely any mention of Israel in the justifications put forward to support this deal. The military commentator for the Haaretz Newspaper revealed the real new factor this deal plays in the region's military situation by saying: "Not all weapons in the Middle East are pointed at Israel".

So it is no surprise that Lebanese political analysts left out any mention of Israel in their attempts to spin and justify this astronomical waste of money. But what is odd, really odd, is their failure to notice this omission on their part. To them, the Kingdom appears to be existentially threatened from the south by Somalia, Al Qaeda and the Hothy armed uprising along the common border with Yemen, simultaneously while facing the prospect of a sectarian civil war in Iraq and the most pressing threat, Iran's pursuit of the nuclear bomb.

It is hard to imagine any effective role for the air force in defending the Kingdom against Al Qaeda or in preventing sectarian civil wars, that is assuming Iraq is inevitably headed that way. To the same degree, it is hard to take seriously the Hothy threat, as experiences continue to prove that the wars in Saada (Hothy area in Yemen) are sometimes peddled by the governing Yemeni war subcontracter to support his attempts seeking Saudi money and military support, or in other instances it is used to extract money and mediation efforts from Qatar.

But what role could an air force play against the Iranian nuclear "threat"? The obvious answer is in attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities. If we buy this justification for spending $60 billion, it comes at somewhat late stage. If at all successful, it is likely that Iran could finish building a nuclear weapon before the 10 years stipulated in the US-Saudi arms deal for the complete delivery of the jets, training pilots to operate them and use their new advanced features.  "A little too late is much too late", as the saying goes. Should a new regional war erupt, the Kingdom will again resort to calling in the armies of US and its Allies just like it did in back 1991. Under those circumstances, the jets are no longer useful in preventing a nuclear armed Iran, but rendered a mere consolation prize for Saudi Arabia to accept and live with it.

On the other hand, there is no clear role for this arms deal in building Saudi deterrence or military capabilities against the Iranian arsenal. The gap is immense, since Iran has the advantage in all types of weapons, particularly a superiority in artillery, ballistic missiles and naval forces. The decisive factor is huge mismatch in numbers of armed personnel to Iran's advantage, a ratio of 5 to 1. Add to this, the potential to increase defense spending, as Saudi Arabia spends 10% of GDP on defense, merely as a consumer, while Iran produces some of its arms while only spending 3% of its GDP.

More blatant is the announcement by Boeing, the manufacturer of F15 jets, and receiver of lion's share in the $60 billion, that the deal would guarantee the continued employment of 77,000 workers in 44 US states. Nor was this the first time a manufacturer has spinned billions dollar arms deal as a savior for US workers from unemployment. As such, the major goal behind this $60 billion deal appears to be providing US workers with jobs while the profits of Boeing and comparable military industry giants soar, and generating sales commissions for Saudi, Arab and Western middlemen.

There is no meaning here to a call for the use of this money in "Sustainable Arabic Development"  or in getting Arabs to the Enlightened Stage, as demanded for by the studies on "Arab Population Development" or promised by the Sheikh Mohamad bin Rashed Al Maktoum Foundation (UAE), or in financing the much anticipated Arab Renaissance Project. It is enough to say that Saudi Arabia would be advancing its own interests by veering towards armaments and looking for ways to use its funds in serving its people. What is more justifiable is using those $60 billion in creating 77,000 jobs for workers in Saudi Arabia proper, where Saudis represent a mere 38% of the workforce, and using it in helping to reduce unemployment especially among fresh graduates which is around 20%. So in the world's richest oil country, whose debts exceed $200 billion due to the financing of US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with wasteful spending, the 120,000 millionaires, amassing $500 billion, co-exist with 20-30% of the population deemed under the poverty line, add to that child labour, and vast class and regional inequalities. If we consider the 
"War on Terror" point of view, it would be imperative to heed the warning issued by Dr. Turki Al-Hamad when he warned about the shrinking Saudi middle class. He also pointed out that as poverty engulfs more, fundamentalism is entrenched further. Saudi Arabia being a major exporter of fundamentalism and terrorism.

On the other hand, as long as there is an Arab ruler who can with the strike of a pen grant US weapons monopolies such a deal, and force his country and people to spend $60 billion without any consultations, or approval from any elected, or appointed, representative or oversight body, we can rest assured that the USA will remain the main political, military and intelligence supporter of hereditary and despotic regimes in the region. And the hypocrisy about human right will continue. We can be even more certain that the "American Project" which aims to impose democracy on our countries as evangelized by liberals and suspected by Islamists and their cronies among leftists and nationalists, is nothing more than fairy dream!
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the sponsor of "moderate" Arab countries, did not attend the opening of the new round of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, unlike its colleagues Egypt and Jordan. But it did contribute something much more important than ceremonial participation. It offered an announcement of shift in its combat ideology."