Monday, May 09, 2005

I hereby announce the results of the Lebanese parliamentary elections: These upcoming Lebanese elections will be hailed as the best and most credible although they will be least representative of the free will of the Lebanese people. To be sure, Lebanese elections in recent years were also marred by Hariri Inc money, and by the heavy interference of the Syrian intelligence which really distorted Christian (and other) representation, which only boosted the fortunes of extremist trends in those communities. There are two main voters in this election: 1)Narrow sectarian partisanship and fanaticism and 2) Hariri money. Money always played a role in past Lebanese elections, but never to the degree that was inaugurated by Hariri, especially in the 2000 elections. The electoral laws will produce big lists (bulldozers) sumpremacy in most districts, and sectarian agendas and mobilization will be reinforced and they alone (along with big Hariri money) will produce the candidates. The results are all but known today; the only mysteries are in the Christian areas of Matn and Kisrawan. The rest are known: Amal and Hizbullah will sweep South Lebanon and Biqa`-Hirmil area; Hariri Inc will sweep Beirut, Tripoli and `Akkar, and possibly more. Jumblat will take over the Shuf and other Druze areas; while `Awn and Lebanese Forces will basically compete for Christian votes in the predominantly Christian electoral districts in the aforementioned areas. Traditional Maronite forces that have enjoyed the absence of `Awn and the imprisonment of Ja`ja` will be the big losers--i.e. Qurnat Shihwan types. And the Hariri list that will be announced tomorrow only gave one seat to the Qurnat Shihwan "opposition"--that for the fanatic right-wing sectarian publisher Jubran Tuwayni--a favorite for Fouad Ajami and Hassan Fattah (Mussoloni would have also admired Tuwayni). And we know some of the political orientations of the Lebanese people: the Opinions for Research and Consulting Company (I translated its Arabic name) conducted a comprehensive survey in Lebanon, and these are some of the interesting findings. It revealed for example--what we--OK, I but I like to use the honorific royal we for respect once in a while--have known all along. No one party or movement captures the hearts and minds (or even livers) of the Lebanese people. The most popular on the national level is Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal (the Hariri Inc Movement) which had the support of 19% of the Lebanese people, followed by Hizbullah (08%), and then Michel `Awn (6%). The survey only reinforces my view of the consolidation of sectarian identities and partisanship throughout the country. As negative as I am about the prospects for reform and progressive change in Lebanon, I doff my hat to the Lebanese people on one matter only: 86% of the Lebanese people support a constitutional quota for female representation in parliament. I really was impressed with that result, and wish that we employ it here in the US where we lag behind all other Western democracies (and non-Western democracies and non-Western non-democracies) in female political representation. As for the Lebanese choices for president, no single candidate is supported by the people and the top candidates (`Awn and Butrus Harb) could not get more than 10% of the public--i.e. mostly Maronite support). As for the silent president who recently has (like a typical Lebanese scoundrel) found refuge in sectarianism, he is supported by a whopping 2.3% of the Lebanese people. Sunni Beirut sources have told me that the Hariri Inc political machine is hard at work. Phone calls are being made to every Sunni voter, and they are being pressed to vote for the entire Hariri Inc lists (to ensure complete Hariri victory with no "infiltration" by rival candidates). At a time of economic distress, largely caused by the disastrous policies and projects of Rafiq Hariri, whose death has made it even more difficult to publicly oppose cruel capitalism and globalization that he had imposed on Lebanon, voters are promised financial incentives and jobs. Even a critic of Hariri has accepted to work for the campaign. A recent graduate of a law school in Lebanon could only found employment with the Hariri Inc apparatus. I feel that I have much to say when I go to Lebanon but the Hariri monopoly of media will made it hard if not impossible for me to penetrate through. I usually make one appearance on LBC-TV's Naharkum Sa`id--last time the host, Mayy Shidyaq, made a huge preface and disclaimer to the effect that "many Lebanese do not share his views" or that "his views are controversial." And I am told it is illegal for American citizens to appear on Al-Manar TV now--and I have not appeared since the ban of Al-Manar in the US, but even Al-Manar has not been outspoken in criticizing Hariri in the last several years. Hariri Inc will win big, and this is not due to Sa`d Al-Hariri's talents, whose speaking skills are comparable to those of his boss, Crown Prince `Abdullah. On a news talk show on New TV, the head of SSNP Party embarrassed right-wing sectarian Maronite leader, Samir Franjiyyah (who was a former leading member of the Communist Action Organization in his youth) by saying that he in the past met with more functionaries of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon than he (Jubran `Urayji, head of the SSNP, and an of Syria). Franjiyyah wanted to hit him, it appeared. But did not deny the charge. When I saw a picture of the delegation of Hizbullah meeting with Gen. `Awn, I thought that principles--no matter what they are, and regardless if they even exist--are all suspended in Lebanon today. Petty sectarian and electoral concerns are paramount. I need a cold beverage, NOW.