Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Abu Faraj Al-Libi in Custody: Of course, Bush wants to mention those Al-Qa`idah members and leaders who are in custody, but he conveniently ignores those who are still at large. I personally always believe that Al-Qa`idah is a small cultish (but obviously dangerous) organization that failed miserably in attracting a mass following. Bin Laden's repeated calls for Jihad appropriately fell on deaf Muslim ears. There is nothing appealing about the message or deeds of this kooky group. But the underlying causes that produced Al-Qa`idah will most likely produce another one, as long as you have the same conditions and governments that fueled, directly or indirectly the emergence of Al-Qa`idah. Is Abu Faraj a big shot in the group? Is he the number 3 as they keep saying in DC? I think that Sayf Al-`Adl is number 3, if there is such a thing. But Al-Libi was certainly one of those who were high in the command of operations, and Bin Ladenite websites are reporting with sorrow the news of his capture. But his "work" was confined to Pakistan, and his execution of at least two assassination attempts on Musharraf's life was behind the decision of the corrupt Pakistani military/intelligence apparatus (which in the past cooperated and collaborated with Taliban and Al-Qa`idah) to go after him. Given the pressures on Al-Qa`idah, it is very unlikely that he was involved in plans of attack outside of Pakistan. Also, Al-Qa`idah knows how to adjust, and they must have learned from the experience of the capture of Khalid Shaykh Muhammad who had so much data on him. He most likely has much less on him, one assumes. I have not seen any of the Arab or US media (the ones I saw or read I should say) mention that he is brother-in-law of `Abdullah Tbarak, who was personal bodyguard of Bin Laden. Would the capture of Al-Libi leads to Bin Laden? Unlikely, I say, especially that I do not really believe that the Pakistani government wants to really capture him (for many reasons, but notably due to fear of domestic repercussions). As for whether Bush has made the US, and the world, safer from terrorism? I say fat chance. I worry that the deadly and violent repercussions of Bush's policies and wars, and their terrorist consequences will be felt most seriosly over the long term. Yet, there are millions of Americans who really believe that Bush solved, or will solve, the problem of terrorism. This is like believing that the House of Saud will solve the problem of oppression in the Middle East.