Sunday, August 16, 2015

Calculating the casualties of the war in Syria: some observations

From Goran:

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights regularly publishes estimates of fatalities in the Syrian civil war. According to the latest tally more than 240 000 people lost their lives in the Syrian conflict. I know that these numbers can be questioned. But if you divide up the numbers in two periods, before and after Dec. 31 2013, you can make some interesting observations.
More than 110 000 have been killed in Syria in the past 20 months.
In the later period 77% of those killed were combatants (up from 65% in the earlier period). Only 7% of total fatalities were women or children (down from 9% in the earlier period). But SOHR statistics on civilian casualties may be an undercount since government “spies” etc. executed by rebels are counted as combatants. 
Since 2014 90% of the fatalities on regime side has been Syrians (down from 99% in the earlier period). Less than 2% were from Hizbullah (0.5% in the earlier period). 
Since 2014 foreign fighters have amounted to 58% of all rebel fatalities. That includes both fighters from the Islamic State and members of other rebel formations. In the earlier period only 24% were foreigners. This seems to be an accelerating trend. Since December 2014 70% of rebel fatalities have been foreigners. 

Regards, Goran"
 

2011-13
2014 - Aug 2015



Total non-combatants
46 266
25 515
Children
7 014
4 950
Women
4 695
3 024
Men
34 557
17 541
Total rebels
29 083
47 676
Syrian fighters
22 170
20 214
Foreign fighters
6 913
27 462
Total regime
52 290
36 326
Regime soldiers
32 013
18 557
Militia/Shabiha/informers
19 729
14 110
Foreign fighters
286
3 018
Hezbollah fighters
262
641
Unidentified 
2 794
431



TOTAL
130 433
109 948