Wednesday, February 04, 2015

Jordanian regime and its diversion strategy

From a reader: "The Jordanian government is scrambling to get their story right while keeping things under control in Jordan, especially in the South. They're saying that Muath was executed a month ago on Jan 3rd.They definitely don't seem surprised but rather very prepared, namely to use the news of the execution to embark on their "revenge" and "war on terror" discourse again. However, until a few days ago, they were still negotiating with ISIS and went so far as to release Sajida al-Rishawi into the care of an Iraqi tribal leader staying in Jordan (or almost release her according to the gov -- although they only denied that she had left Jordan and never denied that she was delivered to the tribe). They also asked for proof of life of Muath. The thing is, however, ISIS never mentioned Muath in their proposed deal to exchange the Japanese prisoner for Sajida. Jordan accepted, but they couldn't very well negotiate for the Japanese prisoner and not Muath. So to placate the people they started issuing official statements about exchanging Sajida for the both Muath and the Japanese prisoner as if it's a done deal. ISIS didn't like Jordan's gov playing games with them and executed the Japanese prisoner. The government's implied story however goes like this now: we were prepared to do what ISIS asked for to release Muath. We wanted to release Sajida like they demanded, but when we asked for Muath's proof of life, ISIS reneged on the deal because Muath was already dead.

This makes a lot of sense when one considers the "confidential agreement" reached by Japan and Jordan to ensure Jordan's help in releasing the Japanese prisoner. That agreement almost certainly involves "aid" money to compensate Jordan for its efforts. Whatever else the Jordanian government might be, they are certainly bussiness-oriented."