Sunday, October 19, 2014

Who will win in Kobane (`Ayn Al-`Arab)?

Ali, the Angry Arab's chief correspondent in Turkey, sent me this commentary:

"Kobane: A win-win for US. Nobody still puts finger on this obvious fact, but really what have IS, Turkey or Syrian Kurds gained from IS surprise attack on Kobane except US, that has been carrying out its political agenda under the motto of what Obama said “degrading and destroying IS”… 
Firstly, IS would get nothing if it completely captures besieged Kurdish town. Kobane has no strategic value, when we compare IS other potential target before it started Kobane campaign on 15th of September: The first potential target was obviously Azaz town, a bordering town to Turkey, located northern Aleppo and has been the crucial supply line for other armed groups that active in the northern Syria. IS was at the gate of Azaz. The second potential target was Deir ez-Zor’s airport that has been used as a crucial base for supplying Syrian army troops in the besieged city. IS has been attacking to capture this airport but with smaller numbers compared to Kobane attack. The third was northern Hasakah, where Kurds controlling oilfields with de facto assistance of Syrian army presence in the city. Contrary these three potential targets, Kobane has no oilfields, has no supply line and IS already has two border crossings in this region. First, Jarablus a few kilometers on the west of Kobane and Tall Abiad on the east. But as reported, IS attacked Kobane with at least 3 thousands of supported with artilleries, tanks, armored vehicles, anti-aircraft guns mounted pick-up trucks. And because of the instant resistance of Kurdish YPG militias and US air strikes, it would pay a very heavy price for non-significant town even if captures completely.

Secondly, what Turkey got, when western media outlets are full of comments that Turkey was behind IS attack on Kobane? Erdoğan is now being portrayed as the ‘monster behind IS’ and a sudden Kurdish uprising hits Turkey and endangers so-called peace process. And now PKK linked PYD in Syria has direct contact with Washington, which should be a nightmare for Ankara.
Thirdly Syrian Kurds, -they are now considering themselves as ‘winner’ since US recognized them- watching Kobane the capital of their Rojava becaming a ruin, while most of the civilians fled to Turkey.
The only winner is US, believe it or not… Since, with the Kobane, it legitimizes its operation against IS on both international and regional levels, found a very strategic ‘partner’ that is Turkey’s Kurds, and know feels free to dictate its position to PYD… Before the attack on Kobane, Reuters revealed that US considered arming Syria’s Kurdish groups but with a precondition “break your alliance with Assad” And those demands are not new of course, as Foreign Policy revealed Washington has been pushing Kurds to adapt this policy for over two years
Now the dreams of US are fulfilled thanks to IS. The outcome of PYD-US talks are still vague, but as US intensifies its air campaign on IS targets in and around Kobane, one thing is obvious, what US brought to table was accepted or at least partly accepted by PYD delegation. Note that right after this direct talk, PYD leader Saleh Muslim went Iraqi Kurdistan and attended a meeting with Barzani and Barzani backed Syrian Kurdish politicians. In this meeting PYD promised ‘a power sharing’ with Barzani backed groups on the administration of Rojava

So in my opinion, it will be just disappointment for those leftist expecting gain for the peoples of Middle East when Kurds beaten IS with the help of US.

PS: Note that the mainstream media limitless hypocrisy. First, Salamiyya town located eastern Hama has been under IS attack but there is not a single report about the situation in the town. UN special envoy says ‘Kobane would be another Srebrenitsa’ but what is waiting us if IS captures this town, that is full of ‘Kuffar’ (The population of the town are composed of Alawites, Shiites, Ismailis and twelvers). Secondly, this is not first IS attack on Kurdish populated areas. IS and its allies then –considered as moderates- attacked Kurdish towns in 2013, but YPG’s women fighters are not posing from the front pages, or nobody was talking about Turkey’s role then. Instead media outlets were talking about ‘hidden alliance between Assad and Syria’s Kurds’. "