Sunday, July 08, 2012

Bahrain and Saudi Arabia

From Angry Arab's chief correspondent on Bahrain:  "The arrest of Nimr AlNimr is having repercussions on Bahrain. The extent of these repercussions remain to be seen. I believe that there are already small protests in Bahrain denouncing his arrest. See the slogan in this picture as an example:

After the Saudi occupation of Bahrain, Bahraini protestors understandably feel that their struggle and the struggle of the protestors in Saudi are one. Add to that the fact that the baharna (which form the bulk of the protestors in Bahrain as well as the bulk of the protestors in the eastern provence - remember historically Bahrain included both the eastern provence and the island of Bahrain ) actually live in both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia with many baharna families having a Saudi branch and a Bahraini branch.
If the protests in the eastern province become greater in size and the Bahraini regime continues to be subservient to Saudi Arabia then there is a great chance that the struggle of both populations will merge as one and we may see the beginnings of one large pan-gulf protest movement. Of course this would take several years and is completely dependent on how each country decides to respond to the protests. You already have rumblings in the rest of Saudi Arabia, protests in Oman and some movement in the UAE. Another interesting thing going on is that it seems that Kuwait may become the Gulf's first constitutional monarchy in a couple of years if things keep going the way they are going. Also Qaboos still hasn't designated a successor and the first generation of the Saudi monarchy will be dead by the end by the end of this decade. Im not sure what this will all mean for Bahrain but all I know is that Bahrain will have a very different system of government in 20 years."