Angry Arab's chief Bahrain correspondent is back: "I have a few updates for you on Bahrain, not really updates but an analysis on
where we are, a year after the uprising. Its been really interesting looking
back and seeing how much has changed. Of course what I tell you know is not set
in stone and things may change as more developments take place:
And a few updates:
- The Rise of Nabeel Rajab: the uprising in Bahrain started as a youth uprising. Just like all the other uprisings in the Arab world, it was leaderless. Now a little over a year later, it seems that the uprising has its leader, and it isn't Ali Salman from AlWefaq or Shaikh Isa Qasim. Instead its human rights activist and President of the Bahrain Center for Human Rights Nabeel Rajab. Rajab is probably the only man the protestors trust mainly because he understands their grievances, sticks to his principles and openly calls for what they want. He has become very influential with them - If he says something, they will listen. The opposition can't ignore him either and he's become increasingly more daring, breaking taboos in their rallies. In the last Alwefaq rally Rajab gave a speech calling for the resignation of the King (the opposition usually sticks to the PM). Also he has become untouchable. Even the police are too scared to do anything to him right now. He has good links with overseas human rights organizations and the government knows that imprisoning him is not a good idea, so instead they have stuck to detaining him for short periods of time and attacking his house. It isn't working though. I can't see any type of negotiated solution between the opposition and the royal family working unless he gives his stamp of approval. Its been really interesting watching how he changed. Remember the letter he wrote at the beginning of the uprising? You called it weak. He is definitely part of the movement now instead of just being an observer. He does have his critics though. I keep getting into an arguement with a friend who says that he is involving himself too much in the uprising instead of being a neutral human rights observer. I don't believe that human rights activists staying seperate from politics. This puts human rights in a box completely seperate from political rights where is reality there is a great amount of overlap. What is your opinion on this?
- The Weakening of AlWefaq: Its becoming clearer than ever - AlWefaq (and the rest of the opposition) is losing its appeal on the street. The rift between them and the protestors is only becoming greater. The past month, there were rumors of talks between the government and opposition and now the government has announced that there will be a comprehensive dialogue. Many people were worried that Alwefaq would compromise on the oppositions demands as outlined in the Manama Charter (elected PM, Parliament with executive powers etc.) and accept an appointed PM. The protestors msg was clear: are support for you is not unconditional. If you compromise we will continue without you. The opposition has responded to these allegations here http://www.aldemokrati.org/ar-BH/ViewNews/64/3228/bayanat.aspx?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook (arabic) and here http://www.aldemokrati.org/ar-BH/ViewNews/128/3229/Home.aspx?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (english.) This is not to say that the legal opposition (not just alwefaq) doesn't retain influence. Their strength was shown last week in March 9 during the biggest protest since last year. Reuters estimated that 100,000 people attended but that was an hour before the protest began. A group of people I trust said that they drove down and estimated that at least 200,000 attended. Opposition I believe said 300,000. Of course the numbers might be exaggerated but however many came it was a lot (feb 2011 levels) and at least in the 10s of thousands. I was surprised that people I thought wouldn't go because they were too scared went. The opposition called on everyone to attend and everyone did. The protest by the way was in response to the King stating (I believe) that there is no opposition Bahrain or something similar. So the protestors organized this in response and the opposition joined. Of course I am not saying that the bulk of the people who attended support the Manama Document but I am saying that the a lot of their supporters who are generally too scared to come out and are not regularly protesting (the regular protestors are mostly feb 14) came out. Again, the size of this protest was shocking to me. I am hoping that there will be more protests of this size and that the protestors will be able to regain the momentum they had last year. The protest wasn't covered well by the international media but AlAkhbar had some really good coverage.
- The End of the Prime Minister: Any astute follower of politics in Bahrain would have predicted this and now the regime is finally saying it (it slipped out pro-regime leader Shaikh AlMahmoods tongue last year in a Washington Times interview last year but he was quickly silenced). The rumors of talks between the opposition and the government are true although they aren't leading to anywhere. I know for a fact that the opposition were told that the regime has no problem with forcing the PM to step down. The problem is that the King still wants to appoint the PM and there is no way the opposition can accept this. It would be political suicide. What is interesting is that the person the opposition was speaking to is Khalid Bin Ahmed, minister of the royal court and probably responsible for (with his brother Khalifa Bin Ahmed) most of the human rights violations. He is very influential with the King. Khalid Bin Ahmed and the PM were rivals (as was the King and PM) but they stood together during the uprising. Now it seems like the royal family is finally willing to sacrifice the PM to keep their grip on power. This is of course a major achievement for the protestors since Bahrainis have been calling for the downfall of the PM since the 1970s.
- The Supposed Bahraini-Saudi Federation: We've been hearing rumors about this for the past year. But a few weeks ago, the brother of the Kings Media advisor tweeted that a federation will be announced in the next few days. It never was. Interestingly, soon after that tweet, the Crown Prince said that Bahrains problems should be resolved locally. Now the rumor is that it will be announced in May. Bahrain is already virtually a Saudi protectorate so I'm not sure what the point of a formal federation would be. In fact it may backfire as this article in AlAkhbar English points out well: http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/whose-fourteenth-province-will-bahrain-become The pro-regime have been calling for it though. Actually maybe I should stop calling them pro-regime and start calling them anti-democracy because it seems that they have no problem with the royal family relinquishing their power to AlSaud.
- Rising Anti-Americanism: As I have said before, Bahrainis are probably one of the least anti-american in the region. Of course they have always been against American foreign policy, especially when it comes to the Palestinian cause, but they never felt that they were DIRECT victims of American foreign policy. Now, after the US' blatent support of the regime, and the selling of American weapons and tear gas to the regime, things have changed. Of course anti-americanism is also on the rise by pro-regime supporters. The majority of them seem to believe that the the protests are the result of some US-Hezbollah-Iran conspiracy. Of course any person with a few brain cells will have a hard time believing that such a conspiracy could exist. I think its difficult for them to resolve their sectarianism and support for the Bahraini government which is of course pro-american and pro-israel with their hatred for american foreign policy and Israel. Of course the Obama Administration doesn't talk about this much and its all very hush hush. Justin Grengler has been doing good work writing about this on his blog. Here's an example: http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/07/obama-iran-love-story-chapter-2.html The Bahraini regime has also been using anti-american rhetoric to shore up support (although it is pro-american) and Khalifa Bin Ahmad AlKhalifa, commander in chief of the Bahrain Defense Forces keeps talking about the so-called conspiracy: http://www.alraimedia.com/Alrai/Article.aspx?id=334649 Its one of his favorite topics
And a few updates:
- Abdul Hadi Alkhawaja has been on a hungerstrike for I believe 40 days now. I can't imagine how that would feel like and I can't think of anyone in Bahrain who would have the strength to go on for that long. Of course this is causing a really big problem for the regime: If he dies then all hell will break lose. If they release him then what's their excuse for imprisoning all the other political leaders, especially Ebrahim Sharif (still my favorite politician) who never called for the downfall of the regime. The international media hasn't been really covering his story. I guess they are too bust with the leaked Assad emails and speculating as to whether he had an affair with that brunette.
- Ever since Timony (apparently known for being the worst cop in America) took over training Bahrains security forces, more and more Bahrainis have been dying from the excessive use of tear gas in residential areas. Here's a great post by Physicians for Human Rights on this: http://physiciansforhumanrights.org/blog/tear-gas-or-lethal-gas.html
- The solidarity people and Code Pink have really been causing a ruckus for the government. Its humorous really. The government no longer allows for visas to be obtained at the airport and to come to Bahrain you actually have to be invited. Once you are there you are usually interrogated in the airport. Welcome to Business Friendly Bahrain (that's their slogan). Business friendly indeed. Of course the fact that some of them are Palestinian and active within the Palestinian cause are a great source of embarassment. As a result, the King as you posted in your blog is apparently fighting for Palestinian rights. Huwaida Arraf by the way attended a showing of a Bahraini regime propoganda film in DC. After the film was over she stood up and criticized the film. The Bahraini Ambassador to the US responded to her and then dismissed her by saying that she was arrested for doing the same thing in other countries. Apparently she has - in Israel.
- The doctors case is still going on. It keeps getting delayed. The entire thing is becoming really tiresome. Apparently the government is going to drop charges on 15 of the 20 doctors and leave 5 as scapegoats. Of course unless these 5 doctors have superhero powers, the government is going to have to come up with a more convincing explanation as to how five doctors can occupy an entire hospital (down from the original 40 something). So far this hasn't materialized though and the 20 left are still on trial. Their is a medic still in jail and being tried separately for some reason.
- I am really worried about the King. I don't think he is completely there mentally speaking. Here is his humorous interview with Deir Speigel http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,814915,00.html and at another instance he says that the the alkhalifas and the baharna (arab shia) came to Bahrain together from Alzubara (Qatar) and that the uprising has distracted him from the Palestinian cause (can't find the article but you linked to it before). Very strange indeed.
- The Obama Administration seems to believe that in order to retain leverage with the Bahraini government and to pressure them to reform, it must keep its strong relationship with Bahrain by selling them arms".
