Tuesday, December 06, 2011

What is happening in Syria?

A reader sent me this report:  "I noted that you are uncertain and doubtful in your blog regarding what is going on in Syria. Please allow my to give you my impression based on phone calls and Skype with my acquaintances, friends and relatives.
It is true that Damascus and Aleppo are heavily guarded and watched by the regime security and Shabeiha in every street, ally or corner; there is absolutely no tolerance to any demonstration regardless how small. In the regime's books, "no tolerance" is not a minor matter, they are not going to gently pat on your back and ask you to go home. The population in these cities have invented other subtle (passive-aggressive) ways to protest, but this is beyond the scope of this email. The regime knows quite well that if one of these two cities revolted, it would be extremely difficult to manage and subdue.
One should note, though, that another reason why these two cities have not joined the revolution is because of the support from the upper middle class Sunni Bourgeoisie (which is not small) that have enriched themselves as they have access to, and partnership, with the corrupt regime's officers and cronies, leaving the rest of the country in a miserable backward state. (I think you should add to your lousy groups: "the lousy upper middle class Sunni Bourgeoisie class." :)
In small towns, most of men 15 to 45 are detained, usually in sports stadiums or similar large facilities as there is no room left in jails and security facilities. The situation is similar to mini concentration camps. That is why you do not hear anymore about Banias, Djebleh, Rastan, etc.
That leaves medium-sized towns (such as Dera'a. Hims, Hama and Deir Azzor, Idleb and Lattakia): The regime does not have enough personnel (trusted ones) that can monitor every corner as in Damascus or Aleppo. Also, these cities are too big to detain most males (of demonstration-age) as in the small towns; so side and smaller streets are not monitored and demonstrations persist, and the population play the game of cat-and-mouse with the Shabeiha and security personnel every day and every night. In a way, these cities are benefiting from the regime's fear of loosing Damascus or Aleppo and disproportionally deploying numerous personnel in them.
I hope that helps in clarifying the picture (as I see it). If you are interested, I will be happy to provide you with phone numbers of ordinary Syrian citizens to talk with. Actually, my Mama would be a good source: She is 85 now. She taught middle school for 50 years and is highly respected in the community. She does not lie, fabricate or exaggerate (no Al-Jazeera), she will tell you things as she witness them. She currently lives in..., although she is originally from ...(her Mama is .....) She is not anti-regime, but very disappointed with Al-Ba'ath as she was an active member of the..., until she recognized it is a tool to glorify Assad (father, then son) and nothing else."