Robert Springborg on Egypt

"The president and the military, have, in sum, outsmarted the opposition and, for that matter, the Obama administration. They skillfully retained the acceptability and even popularity of the Army, while instilling widespread fear and anxiety in the population and an accompanying longing for a return to normalcy. When it became clear last week that the Ministry of Interior's crowd-control forces were adding to rather than containing the popular upsurge, they were suddenly and mysteriously removed from the street. Simultaneously, by releasing a symbolic few prisoners from jail; by having plainclothes Ministry of Interior thugs engage in some vandalism and looting (probably including that in the Egyptian National Museum); and by extensively portraying on government television an alleged widespread breakdown of law and order, the regime cleverly elicited the population's desire for security. While some of that desire was filled by vigilante action, it remained clear that the military was looked to as the real protector of personal security and the nation as a whole. Army units in the streets were under clear orders to show their sympathy with the people."  Now Bob knows a lot about Mubarak's Egypt and was an early writer about the military-security apparatus of the regime (and he speaks Arabic with an Egyptian accent) but it seems to me that his piece here is way too categorical in declaring the victory of the regime.  The process that has been ignited in Egypt is and will be out of tight control, by either sides, and the momentum will be determined by many factors so the ability of any one side to dictate events is lessened.  Remember that it took Nasser 2 years to take control of Egyptian regime after the Revolution.  This is a process and no one can predict the outcome at this point.  I should also say that he is wrong about the public attitudes toward the Army.  I urge Bob to watch Aljazeera and even Al-Arabiyyah to detect a change in the public tone toward the Egyptian Army.  (thanks Noor)