Saturday, February 12, 2011

A Guide to Reading the Egyptian Uprising in its first week

1) Nothing you see now will stay.
2) Struggle between different forces and powers will take months and years to be resolved (it took Nasser until 1954 to control the scene in Cairo after the Revolution.
3) The names you hear now may not be heard from again, and there will be new names that you have not heard of before.
4) Some figures from the "ancien regime" will rear their faces and even prosper in the new regime.
5) Egypt has changed no matter what will happen. Fear is gone and control of state is loosened.
6) There will be violence: it is unlikely with 300 dead and 2000 injured that there won't be revenge and assassinations.
7) Expect Mubrak-leaks: new documents will be leaked that will be embarrassing and damning (a document has been released by an Egyptian newspaper showing a horrible diplomatic order by the lousy Mubarak's foreign minister, Ahmad Abu Al-Ghayt.
8) Enemies of the US/Israel in the country and in the region will have an advantage inside the country--politically and intelligence wise
9) There will be new political parties and groups and old ones will wither away
10) Mubarak can't stay in the country. He said that he wants to die on Egyptian soil.  He very well may--but not a natural death.
11) The media will change: the courageous journalists (a small number) of the previous era will be the new media star (`Abdul-Halim Qandil and Hamdi Qandil (no relation) and Ibrahim `Isa).
12) The Muslim Brotherhood will be courted by Iran, Turkey, and...US (not to mention Saudi Arabia which will only court them to appease the US although Saudi Arabia may be tempted to subvert the democratic system by supporting the Brothers to spite the US.  Saudi anger at US is intense.
13) The role of the middle classes will recede on the streets, and that of peasants and workers will rise.
14) The vulgar singer, Sha`ban `Abdul-Rahim who sang for Husni Mubarak will come out with songs against him.