Lebanon

Don't have high hopes that things in Lebanon would reach logical conclusions: they never do.  Hizbullah feels the need to go all the way against its enemies--knowing that many of them have been aligned with Israel (directly or through the US and Saudi Arabia) but is burdened by its sectarian ideology and composition and is aware it is restrained in what it can accomplish.  For that reason, expect another lousy compromise to emerge and don't be surprised--after months or more of tensions and being on-the-verge-of-civil-war--if Ilyas Murr returns even as Minister of Defense.  The absence of a secular alternative ensures that the outcome will always be lousy.  We had a chance back in 1976, but the Syrian regime intervened and prevented the secular leftist outcome of conflict.  But make no mistake: the opposition has many advantages: the biggest one being the sheer incompetence and ineptitude of Mini-Hariri.