Sunday, June 07, 2009

Why most results are known in advance: on Lebanese electoral law

Electoral laws (and the drawing of districts) can sway the results of elections. The Lebanese government decided to abandon the 2000 electoral law (which was fashioned by Syrian mukhabarat chief, Ghazi Kan`an in cooperation with Rafiq Hariri and Emile Lahhud) and to switch to the 1960 electoral law. The difference is big: the 1960 law uses small electoral districts: smaller districts favor sectarian candidates because more than 90% of small districts (qada') are more than 90% or so of sectarian predominance. This electoral law was favored by Patriarchate Sfayr who believes that only Christians should vote for Christian candidates and only Muslims should vote for Muslim candidates. (He actually said so in those words in 2005). For example: Bshirri district is 99.9% Christian in the composition of voters, Kisrawan is 98.0% Christian, Al-Matn is 94.3% Christian, Al-Batrun is 93.3% Christian, and Diniyyah is 85.4 % Sunni, Sidon is 82.3% Sunni, 80.4% Sunnis, Nabatiyyah is 95.0% Shi`ite, Bint Jubayl is 88.1% Shi`ite, Tyre is 83.4% Shi`ite. But the reliance on the 1960 electoral law changed one thing: the number of Christian winners who are elected by non-Christian voters went down: In the 2000 election law (which the Syrian mukhabarat favored by Hariri mostly (and even Birri in some cases) wanted to select the Christian deputies), 44 Christian deputies were elected by non-Christian voters (the number went down to 21 in the 1960 electoral law. Among Sunnis, the number of Sunni deputies who were elected by non-Sunni voters went down from 5 to three (from 3 to two in Shi`ite cases). But the election picture is weird: 60% of voters in Lebanon are Sunnis and Shi`ite (not counting Druzes) and yet the Lebanese political system insists that the seats in the 128-deputies parliament should be split equally between Christians and Muslims: which means that Christians get more numerical reprsentation than Muslims.
PS I with acknowledge Lebanese pollster Kamal Fghali for his help. He sent me an unpublished study he did for the 1960 election law. He is in my opinion the most knowledgeable expert of Lebanese election and edited the massive Election Encyclopedia of 2000--and gave me copies. Kamal Fghali is now on LBC-TV providing analysis: he went out on a limb during this election season to predict a victory for the opposition although his estimates narrowed the margin of victory in the last weeks of the season. People accuse him of being pro-`Awn while in reality he is an independent leftist. He privately conduts polls on the number of atheists in Lebanon and according to the numbers he shared with me the numbers are comparable to those in the US (less than 5% unforunately).
PS Amer caught a mistake I made in referring to Maronites instead of Christians in percentages in the districts. I corrected it.