Saturday, June 06, 2009

Who paid the most money to influence the Lebanese election?

I don't have evidence and I don't have data but I can speculate--pure speculation on my mind--that: Saudi Arabia paid the most money (one source in Lebanon mentioned $300 million of Saudi funding and the withdrawal of candidate Emile Nawfal in Jubayl the other day followed a brief visit to Lebanon by the Saudi Minister of Information who is running the Lebanese election on behalf of Prince Muqrin becaue he was previously ambassador in Lebanon) in this election followed by Iran and the US. (I recently told a New York Times correspondent that his article on Lebanon did not mention US money in the election. The US has funded various parties in elections since at least WWII. You may think that the US does not do that anymore but there are various programs and ways for the US to (laregely covertly) use funds to influence elections under the rubric of "democracy promotions"--and there are billions for that. Hell, for "democracy promotion" don't be surprised if the US helps Husni Mubarak using the argument that his opponents are less democratic). I assume that Qatar paid some money and maybe even the Syrian regime but only to support Ba`thist candidates--the Syrian regime is notoriously stingy. As for Lebanese money, no one side can top the Hariri money, followed by Najib Miqati, followed by Muhammad Safadi (the three billionaires running on one list in Tripoli). I feel that Amal and Hizbullah are not spending that much money for their candidates: they are like the Democratic Party with African-American voters: they are taking them for granted. Hizbulalh and Amal know that when sectarian motivations serve as major determinants of electoral behavior, this serves them well. Tayyar is spending money and they may have received aid from their Lebanese allies because the elections will be decided in Christian districts.