Sunday, January 25, 2009

Saudi alliance with Al-Qa`idah: the Second Phase

Something is really happening in Saudi Arabia. I was talking about that to Radio Monte Carlo a few minutes ago. The factional struggle within the royal family is having an impact on Saudi policies and will only become more visible. I see that there are signs of a Saudi alliance with the Al-Qa`idah. The first phase of that alliance was in the wake of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It is safe to say that the same Prince Turki who is now threatening Jihad was the mid-wife, so to speak, of Al-Qa`idah (and later of Taliban). They ended that alliance officially in the mid 1990s under US pressure although a footnote in the official Sep. 11 commission report indicated that a prince helped whisk Bin Laden safely out of the kingdom. But in the last two or three years there seems to be a return to the alliance with Al-Qa`idah: you see it in the Saudi sponsorship of Salafi violent groups, and in the resumption of Saudi sponsorship of Taliban in Afghanistan. But I predicted that the Saudi sponsorship of anti-Shi`ite agitation (with full American support) would inevitably lead to the utilization of Al-Qa`idah and Bin Ladenite groups. Al-Qa`idah would have been way too tempting for a government intent on resorting to acute anti-Shi`ite mobilization. I also think that the policy of Munasahah (a difficult word to translate but let us say it is "counseling" which refers to the official Saudi policy of rehabilitation of Al-Qa`idah terrorists inside the kingdom) which produced 60 Al-Qa`idah terrorists who graduated and then went on to resume their Al-Qa`idah terrorism. Yet, Saudi media still brag about the policy and show the facilities and the entertainment centers and swimming pools available to the coddled Al-Qa`idah members. Yesterday, the station of King Fahd's brother-in-law, Al-Arabiyyah, aired a report on the new leader of Al-Qa`idah in Yemen and would repeatedly cite a clip in which he railed against Hasan Nasrallah. I know that House of Saud are desperate to gain a foothold among Arab public opinion on Palestine, but they must know that among Arab public opinion the credentials of Nasrallah on Palestine are quite superior to those of Al-Qa`idah--the wishes of the House of Saud to the contrary notwithstanding.

PS Forgot to mention that the struggle within the royal family, especially with the impending death of Prince Sultan (who is "recovering well"--which in official Arab terminology means that he is dying soon), will also lead to the reliance on Al-Qa`idah to do the bidding of one faction against another especially that at least half of the royals are themselves Wahhabi fanatics (the other half being King Fahd-style hedonistic fanatics).