Friday, January 02, 2009

Coup in Egypt?

I asked a journalist whose knowledge of Egypt I respect about prospects of a coup in Egypt. He sent me this (he chooses to remain anonymous): "actually, there is word (posted on a website for harakat annaseriyyeen al 3arab-which i have not located yet but was told about) of a failed attempt that already happened/was being planned in the past few days and that the perpetrators are now being tried in a secret court, but there is no confirmation yet. one liwa was allegedly involved. (a former failed attempt had taken place during invasion of iraq but was faltly denied and shushed early on. the army by the way has been deployed to stem protests now. obviously, the longer the gaza situation remains as is and hamas puts on a strong defense, the more likely it will happen. one of the journalists who has been in touch with people there says anything that provides a context for a coup at this stage will be used, people are just fed up. one has to be on ground to give smart estimate but i believe chances for either revolt or coup remain low to medium at best- the former less likely than the latter. any sustainable coup in my opinion has either to secure the support or sympathy of ikhwan or get green light from washington-, otherwise it will have no muscle and will be left exposed. but you know these things, when they happen , there is a rupture that one can hardly rationalize. i am phoning a journalist there on the ground tomorrow. will send you any significant updates."