Thursday, May 15, 2008

Wake up the children and release the pigs from the barn. The Arab League delegation in Lebanon announced the accord. Politically, the opposition got what it wanted...and more. But many political positions remain unchanged with one exception: Jumblat managed to maintain and boost his leadership among the Druzes; Hizbullah maintained its leadership among the Shi`ites, although I expect that Amal would make some gains because they may be perceived as "effective"--defined in terms of thuggery--in street battles; the Christian organizations remain unchanged although `Awn may benefit by arguing that his agreement with Hizbullah kept Christian areas away from the "battle" scenes; but the Hariri leadership among the Sunnis is shaken. Sa`d Hariri disappearance for days during the crisis and the humiliation of the Hariri militia all over Lebanon (the massacre of SSNP members in Halba notwithstanding) have severely damaged the Hariri position: but this damage in no way went to the side of the opposition. The pro-Hizbullah Sunnis remain very weak and barely representative of Sunni public opinion. There will be competitors among the Sunni friends and rivals of Hariri. Certainly, Bahiyya Al-Hariri--politics aside--proved a much more capable and competent leader than her nephew (and she performed well under pressure) but the misogyny of the House of Saud will prevent her emergence as a leader. But is is mildly amusing how Hariri supporters all over Lebanon, and even in Hariri media (called "progressive" by Thomas Friedman) talk about Al-Qa`idah: they use the threat of Al-Qa`idah as if Al-Qa`idah is a large Muslim Sunni state with a large intimidating army, and that it is willing to deploy troops in Lebanon at a short notice to help bolster Hariri leadership. But the Lebanese will now resume what they do best: to pretend that they love each others and that war will never afflict their land. And the New York Times editorialized on Lebanon today: "President Bush claims Lebanon’s 2005 “Cedar Revolution” — which ended 30 years of Syrian military occupation — as a triumph of his policy of democracy promotion. Given Lebanon’s history, that was always naïve." Naive? Naive? You think that we forgot the celebratory articles and editorials in the New York Times celebrating the Hummus Revolution, when Hassan Fattah was dispatched to Beirut to join the festivities? This is like Thomas Friedman and Noah Feldman: how they were enthusiastic cheerleaders for the Bush's war in Iraq and now they both pose as critics of the war. Who are you fooling?