Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Race and Voting behavior. The media were surprised with the results yesterday. They should not have. People who study voting behavior note that voters often lie about their electoral intentions especially when race is involved. White voters inflate their desire to vote for a black candidate and the black candidate almost always capture less of the white vote than was previously projected by opinion polls or even by exit polls. When Doug Wilder was first elected as the first black governor, he received far less of the white vote than was projected in opinion surveys. Similarly, when the Nazi David Duke ran governor he captured more of the white vote than was projected before the election. So voters often register their responses fearing that they may be perceived as racist. People who study voter behavior in UK have also noticed that Thatcher was receiving more support in the 1980s than was projected in opinion surveys: many young British voters were relectant to tell pollster of their intentions to vote for her because it was not cool among the young to voter for a Conservative candidate.