Monday, October 02, 2006

Lebanese public opinion. I looked at just-released two public opinion surveys: one by the right-wing Ibsos and the other by the reliable Beirut Center (I thank Abdu Sa`d, director of the Beirut Center for sending me the full results of his survey--it is in a Word document so I can't reproduce here). I don't have time to write detailed analysis. But one thing is for sure: Gen. `Awn continues to command the lead in the Christian community. The key question that splits the Hariri coalition from the opposition is the idea of a "national unity government." Hariri Inc is opposed, and Hizbullah-`Awn are in favor. You see that the Christians are supportive (71.2% in the Beirut Center poll and 69% in the Ipsos poll). What is also interesting is that the Sunni community is not fully unified around Hariri Inc agenda; there are more differences than we are led to believe. The question on the "national unity government" for example split the community almost in half, as the results show. But the Shi`ite results are not surprising: there is a solid bloc behind Hizbullah's agenda as can be revealed, the wishes of Rice to the contrary notwithstanding.