I really think the most likely scenario is one of a Lebanese implosion. Hizbullah may be winning on the military scene, but this is not very important as the two pronged and highly synchronized attack of the US politicians (I disregard other politicians on purpose, they don't exist in this war) and the Israeli Army is working well: destroy a country and kill as many civilians as you can to prepare the grounds for an unconditional surrender by Hizbullah. The political battle is being won by the US in New York. The 7 points of the Lebanese government gives more concessions than 1559, and they wont even agree to that! The US are fighting a win win war, it is not their soldiers who are dying, and they don't give a toss about the Lebanese people, civilians or no, Christians or muslims or hindous. Now go convince Hizbullah that they will be left in peace in a US dominated Lebanon. The Americans will take them all to guantanamo, after finding them guilty of killing Hariri, Kennedy and the Archiduc Ferdinand.
That is why I do not see an end to this war any time soon. A couple of days ago, I met a friend who used to be politically active in the "old days". You know him.He lives in Chiyah and he has been waiting with his parents, his disabled sister, his wife and 5 children, for the Israelis to bomb his street. Two nights ago, he took them all and they went to sleep on the sidewalk of the nuns' school where his children go in Ain el Remaneh. Can you imagine the kids' trauma? You go to the school like the other kids, but everyday you pass by the sidewalk where you and your parents have slept. They left at 5:30 am so that no one would see them, and the moment they got home, the Israelis brought down 2 buildings 200 meters away from his house. More traumas. I gave him my camper van and he came last night to sleep on the corniche, near AUB, as the Israelis won't ever bomb an American institution. They had barely left Chiyah when the raid happened on the building 50 meters away from theirs. 40 dead, hundred wounded at least. When I opened the roof of the camper his 12 years old daughter started shouting and crying: close it please close it, they will think it's a rocket launcher and kill us all. It took me a while to understand what she meant. They've moved into the offices of the company where he works today. That's not far from where I live."
