Hasan Nasrallah's new TV message. This was a new TV message by Hasan Nasrallah released through Al-Manar TV to all Arab media. It was carried by all of them, except the sleaze-and-dance channels funded by House of Saud--who on the side also fund Bin Ladenites, chief among them is the Mufti of Saud Arabia. Visually, as Ghassan Bin Jiddu of Al-Jazeera pointed out: it was much better than his second message (video-taped) during this war of aggression by Israel. The quality of that one was not good, and he looked for some tired. In this one: it was a much more relaxed setting. He was sitting on a chair, with the flags of Lebanon and Hizbullah behind him. He spoke from an outline of a talk--he does not read texts of speeches. His main point was to respond to the charges that Hizbullah erred by capturing the occupation soldiers. To that he said: that there is evidence that Israeli troops have been conducting maneuvers and exercises for a large-scale attack on Lebanon to begin in September or October of this year. He did not cite sources for the information. He said that this on-going large-scale attack could not logically be a spontaneous response to the capture of the occupation soldiers. He said that the plan--if the timing was giving to Israel to execute in September or October--aims at destroying the command and leadership of the party, to cause paralysis in its rank. He said that the capture of the soldiers gave Hizbullah a tactical advantage--my words. That if the timing was left to Israel to determine, the Party would have been caught by surprise. It seems that Hizbullah, like Israel, does contingency plans. He also said that he would not accept (and he read that part) any settlement that would be insulting to the dignity of the country and of the resistance. He also said that the timing of the war was determined by the US: he said that the US has been sending one military delegation after another in the last year, trying to determine the ability and willingness of the Lebanese Army to fight against Hizbullah. He said that this was part of a plan against Hamas, Hizbullah, Iranian regime, and the Syrian regime. He said that the US realized that the new Lebanese army would not accept to do that job--he did not say that the "new" Lebanese Army is mostly Shi`ite, unlike the US-pampered "old" Lebanese Army which was mostly Christian, especially during the war up until the horrific administration of Amin Gemayyel. He praised the Lebanese Army--don't ask me why. The Minister of Defense, Ilyas Murr, threatened last week to teach Israel a lesson IF Israel advances its troops into Lebanon. Maybe Murr has not hard the latest news. He did not speak in any details about domestic Lebanese politics, and he also did not criticize any Arab government. He noted the affection expressed by Arab people toward Hizbullah. He also spoke about the lies of Israeli propaganda: and promised that he would deal with the battle and its developments transparently. He was here trying to contrast the communiques of the party with the bombastic claims of Israeli propaganda. (Nasrallah follows Israeli media very closely. I once asked him what he reads. He said that time is now limited for him to read what he enjoys, and that he has to read books on Islamic theology. He said that his religious rank requires that he keeps up with that. But then added that so much of his time is devoted to reading Israeli press and studies of Israel.) He said that losses would be reported, and that Israel has been making false claims. (He did not mention that Israelis are still dancing in the streets for the ability of the mighty Israeli army to occupy the village of 12 houses--Marun Ar-Ras--in 14 days. Come to think of it: with all that money and weapons that US tax payers send to Israel, should that army not be able to take it in 12 days? It is Marun Ar-Ras, for potato's sake.) Again, I know that Arab public opinion would stand on the side of any group or even regime that defies Israel and the US--that opinion--to my dismay--supported Saddam in the past, but not for his tyranny, mind you. But the key question is how this will be seen by Lebanese public opinion. That remains to be seen. One pollster in Lebanon will be conducting a poll any day now, and I shall report to you the results. Just don't expect Bush to popular, ok? Nasrallah also spoke that negotiations are in good hands--a reference to Nabih Birri--and that Rice yesterday merely carried Israeli demands. He also said that the "beyond Haifa" phase of the military confrontation shall begin. He did not elaborate. From the standpoint of Nasrallah's political perspective, the message needed more--I think--about the Lebanese population. I felt that he did not address the larger Lebanese public especially given the incessant Saudi propaganda and its focus on deepening the Sunn-Shi`te rift. But whatever propaganda gains Hasan Nasrallah may make, it has to be measured against the lousy media performances by Hizbullah deputy, Husayn Al-Hajj Hasan, who seems to be the most frequent Hizbullah guest on Arab TV during this crisis. He could not be more ineffective and more incompetent.