Thursday, March 10, 2005

Now we know for sure. Lebanese opposition does not speak for the Lebanese. Lebanese pollster Abduh Sa`d conducted a comprehensive public opinion survey in Lebanon, across sectarian lines. I do not have time to talk about it now (I shall do that perhaps tomorrow), but the results merely confirm what I have been stressing as far as the deep sectarian divisions are concerned. I can tell you that the results prove that the right-wing opposition in Lebanon is really largely a Christian-Druze affair. There are more Sunnis who are opposed to the opposition than who are supportive (47.1 % supportive versus 52.9 % opposed). 97 % of Shi`ites are opposed to the Lebanese opposition. And Sunnis overwhelmingly (87.7 % ) reject disarming Hizbulalh and 94.2 % of Shi`ites are opposed to disarming Hizbullah. And 96.4 % of Lebanese Shi`ites consider the US "unfriendly" toward Lebanon, followed by 80.6 % of Sunnis, 48.2 % of Greek Orthodox, 47.3 % of Greek Catholics, 41 % of Maronites, and 35 % of Druzes. Bush should be reading those figures before he fools himself. Maybe the media in the US should be careful before they regard the flag waving in Lebanon as a manifetation of unanimous Lebanese support for Bush. If you factor in the demographic realities in Lebanon, this also confirm my estimate from a few days ago that the opposition does not enjoy more than a 1/3rd (at best) of Lebanese public opinion. But that 1/3rd is more affluent (and has much bigger access to Lebanese, Arab, and Western media) than the majority of the Lebanese who are not noticed by US media coverage (until the demonstration on Tuesday).