The Shi`ite Triangle: There were two factors behind the US offensive in Najaf. I have no doubt that one of them has to do with the electoral calculations of the Bush administration. Make no mistake about it: Carl Rove may wield more influence in Iraq than top US commanders. Bush wanted to "settle" the Muqtada As-Sadr's question before his crowning at the Republican convention. Those experts who have been wrong all along must have told him that it will take no time, and that it will cause no outrage, and that the Imam `Ali Shrine is of no particular significance to Shi`ites. Lest you forget, the neo-conservative document on Iraq back in 1996 had stated that Iraqi Shi`ites would all be loyal to the King of Jordan, yes, THE KING OF JORDAN, I kid you not. Such is the level of Middle East expertise at the US government. Of course, the significance of the Imam `Ali Shrine is missed in the US media. Some would indicate that it is comparable to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. I think it is comparable to the Church and the Vatican combined: because the Mosque had emerged from the days of Harun Ar-Rashid of the Abbasid Empire not only as a destination for pilgrims but also as a center for religious learning, even when Saddam tried his best to marginalize it. Cheney must have thought that this would only take hours: these were the same people who dismissed As-Sadr as a small-town cleric with no popular base. Yet, US-commissioned polls in Iraq indicated to them that he was wildly popular, and became only more popular after US campaigns against him. Nothing can boost your popularlity in the Middle East more than US hostility against you. Witness how international embezzler Ahmad Chalabi is basking in US hostility against him. This is now his only chance to attract a following. The second factor behind the campaign is a calculation to boost the prospects of the Iraqi puppet prime minister/car bomber/former Saddam's assassin/embezzler-in-Yemen, Iyad `Allawi. The US wanted to enhance his standing prior to the puppet elections, assuming they take place of course. Witness the numerous postponements of Afghan puppet elections. Some experts who have read the "bible" of the neo-conservatives (as Hersh described it in the New Yorker) The Arab Mind or have read the awful commentaries of Bernard Lewis reminded them of the dreaded cliche about the Arabs only understanding the language of force. I really now believe that the "rumor" that `Allawi has shot prisoners in cold blood was promoted by the US propaganda machine in Iraq to portray him as a tough guy. His one-hour visit to Najaf a few days ago (surrounded by his fans--the US Special Forces) was intended to project an image of toughness. Some have asked me whether the US forces in Iraq need to ask the permission of the Iraqi puppet government before launching attacks or operations. Not really. According to the agreement according to which the US "surrendered" power in Iraq, US forces need to ask the permission of the Iraqi puppet government "except in sensitive cases"--as the Arabic version has it--when the US can act on its own. The re-election of Bush is an example of a sensitive case, of course. Just like every other occupation in previous times, the US had to abandon one stooge-quisling (Chalabi) and replace him with another stooge-quisling(Allawi), and the US will soon realize that Allawi is finished. Yesterday, thousands in Nasiriyyah were chanting "`Allawi, Oh, coward; you are the agent of the Americans" (It rhymes in Arabic: Ya `Allawi Ya Jaban, Ya `Amil-l-Amrikan). The headquarters of his gang (known as the National Accord Movement--set up by US-Saudi-Jordanian intelligence) was set ablaze TWICE in two days. It has become a popular ritual in Nasiriyyah. Apparently, the US had learned from the British that Sistani was leaving for two weeks before he left, and thought to take advantage of his absence. Like every other decision made by US occupation, this was a miscalculation. The world Shi`ite and Sunni reactions are growing. The statement by Iranian spiritual guide Khamene'i was categorical, but the statement by Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah was more significant. This Najaf-born (his father was a teacher in Najaf) Beirut-based Grand Ayatollah (whom I had interviewed 3 times in the past) is hugely popular in Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. He was even approached by Iraqi Shi`ites to relocate to Iraq to fill the religious void after the fall of Saddam. He seriously considered it. He has evolved in his views over the years, changing from somebody who was closely associated with Hizbullah in its most radical phase, to a voice of moderation and even enlightenment in the last decade. (And he is now at odds with Hizbullah). In the statement that he issued today, he called on Iraqis to fight US occupation "by all possible means." That is quite significant. Hizbullah has been silent but Lebanese journalist Qasim Qasir writes in Al-Mustaqbal that Hizbullah is studying and monitoring the situation in Iraq very closely. I know Qasir and he is very well-connected and well-informed. The grave site outside of Najaf (known as Wadi As-Salam (Valley of Peace) is also holy grounds for Shi`ites. Millions of Shi`ites have been buried there over the CENTURIES to be close to the burial site of `Ali Ibn Abi Talib. Cheney's Middle East advisors probably do not know much about the cult of `Ali. My father was not a religious Shi`ite but he also had deep reverence for `Ali. Shi`ites even keep replicas of his sword (which had two blades according to legend) and is even named Dhu-l-Fiqar. My father also kept a replica of Dhu-l-Fiqar on the wall, to the displeasure of my sister. Since the US invaded Iraq, it can be said that every mistake that can be made has been made. Not a single mistake was avoided. This is an administration that knows how to make mistakes. But it is alarming and disturbing that the US media are not paying that much attention, and the news of the death of civilians in Iraq (not to mention Palestine) do not cause a ripple. But make no mistake about it: even if As-Sadr is killed or captured, the movement that has grown will continue to grow. It will only be pushed into the underground. And then, the US media will start talking about how all is calm in Iraq EXCEPT in the Sunni...AND Shi`ite triangles.