Wednesday, April 07, 2004

The problem that the US faces in Iraq may be more serious than assumed. When Al-Hayat newspaper (the most moderate and the most pro-American) puts a headline with the news of "massacre in Falujah", and when Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat (another moderate largely pro-American, pro-Saudi daily) carries a cartoon of four pictures of Bush in which you see him being transformed into Saddam, you realize the kind of "image problem" the US will be dealing with in the next few: months, years, etc. The bombing of As-Samarra'i mosque is getting full attention in the Arabic newspapers and TV stations. And even if As-Sadr is captured or killed, there may be a more dangerous phase approaching. I do not compare the Iraq situation to Vietnam, but I compare it to Israel in South Lebanon, having lived under Israeli occupation. Just like in Lebanon, new underground, and more lethal, Shi`ite groups will most likely be heard from, and they will only make the situation for the American forces more unmanageable. They may be in a state of secret formation as we speak. They will use new names, and will be difficult to identify or find. By the way, what is the deal with Muqtada As-Sadr's appeal to Kuwait? I did not understand that one. Why Kuwait? Was that an indirect appeal to Kuwaiti Shi`ites (knowing that there have been Sunni-Shi`ite tensions in Kuwait as of late)? And many Shi`ites from the Kuwaiti merchant class have been benefactors of the Shi`ite religious seminaries in Southern Iraq. I do not know. The neo-conservatives promised to restructure the Middle East; they have done that. But far from what was promised. Aytaollah Sistani is in a very difficult position; he clearly does not like As-Sadr (who at one point tried to have him evicted from Najaf), but he has to be very sensitive to the public mood of the Shi`ites. Grand Ayatollahs are not elected; I was telling my students last week that they rise based on reputation, just like area physicians. As a result, they have to be politically sensitive too. But I do not think that they have their own pollsters.