The shift in Walid Jumblat's position and rhetoric in one week is quite remarkable. I have a friend who I ask about the psychology of Walid Jumblat. He knows the Druze community well, and the families. He speculated that the change was due to preparation for the upcoming presidential election. He noted that Jumblat is quite consistent in adjusting and shifting prior to parliamentary elections in Lebanon, only to readjust again after he achieves what he wants from the elections. His speech yesterday was a dramatic shift: especially if you compare it to his speeches before Martin Indyk's audiences in Washington, DC. Hizbullah leaders are naive enough and will be fooled yet again by him, and then they will express shock yet again when Jumblat turns against them again. I still remember a Hizbullah leader explaining to me the alliance between Hizbullah and Jumblat in 2005 by saying that Hasan Nasrallah has a big sway over Jumblat. I was shocked because Jumblat's statements just after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri were clear enough in the direction that Jumblat would take. In fact, Jumblat was sponsored by Wolfowitz (who took deep interest in Lebanon before taking a deep interest in the "welfare of poor countries" at the World Bank) very early on, according to my sources in Beirut. Wolfowitz hoped that the experiment in Lebanon would work, unlike the debacle in Iraq. Jumblat yesterday reminded the audience about the fight against Israeli occupation in 1982, all the way to the fight against Israeli aggression last summer. He said that "the resistance is what binds us". He said that Tariq Jadidah (a Sunni neighborhood) is the same as the southern suburbs. But people pointed out to me the demeanor of Jumblat. He looked sad or scared, or both. He certainly feared a Druze-Shi`ite conflict: a conflict that his party can't prevail in. One of the ones kidnapped and killed was one of the PSP's snipers last January. In fact, he was briefly arrested by the Lebanese police for his role in shooting at one college student (from the Shamas family which is now accused in the press of responsibility for the kidnapping and murder of the two men). But Jumblat interceded at the time and the man was released. Is it guilt that Jumblat is experiencing--not that he is known for bouts of guilt or remorse. He calls for a strong role by the state, but he has subverted the Lebanese state all along--as have ALL the others. (Of course, I don't want the Lebanese state, and I don't want it strengthened. This is a state that does not deserve support, and has never protected its citizens, and never achieved even a semblance of social justice. This is a state that only flexes its muscles against refugee camps (especially when the men are away--remember Amin Gemayyel's army troops what they did in the camps in 1982 and 1983 and 1984?). All in Lebanon are acting that they are now concerned when they have allowed the American-Saudi-Israeli conspiracy to push the country into the brink of civil war, with the enthusiastic support of the Hariri family and its chorus line. By the way: how much support would the Hariri family have in Lebanon if it were to lose its fortune? The answer to the question can explain a lot. And why would the killers shoot a 12-year old? I don't have answers. Gen. `Awn said that murder has the hallmark of "intelligence apparatus." He did not elaborate.