I read an opinion by Israeli historian Amatzia Baram in the US press, who, I read, is advising the US occupation in Iraq. Baram, mind you, was one of those who assured the US government that Iraqis, especially Shi`ites, would greet US forces as "liberators" and greet them with "sweets and flowers". He did not speculate, in fairness, whether they would make tiramissu for them. This Baram was analyzing Arab culture by the typical references to "honor" "tribes" and "face saving." Those dreaded cliches about Arab society. These are the people who reduce analysis to that over-quoted proverb, "Me and my brother against my cousin, and me and my cousin against the stranger." And this is not true. Arab royal families are closer to US than to one another. So there. And Bush met with Husni Mubarak. I laughed when I saw that picture. Does the US government think that they reach out to Arab public opinion when they cuddle the Egyptian dictator who is nicknamed the "laughing cow" by Egyptians who think that he resembles that cow on the famous (but not delicious) French cheese? What will Mubarak do for them? Today's statement by Grand Ayatollah Sistani cannot be underestimated. This could be the last step before Sistani issued that one fatwa--eagerly awaited by non-Iraqi Arabs--which would begin the countdown for US withdrawal from Iraq. I was certain that US occupation would not work; but Bremer's mistakes and arrogance, only expedited US failure beyond anybody's expectations. To trigger a fight with Muqtada As-Sadr before June was just idiotic. Muqtada was digging for this kind of fight, that only made him look like a victim of US intolerance for press criticisms. In fact, before this episode, As-Sadr had been largely deflating on his own. He would issue ultimatum, warnings, and statements but not follow through, which made his "credibility" suffer. He was looking weak, before Bremer elevated him. He has been marginalized by Sistani. But now: he is getting the popular glory that had eluded him. Sistani's statement could indicate a prospect of a Sistani-As-Sadr's alliance: Sistani needs as-Sadr for street power; and As-Sadr needs Sistani for moral-religio legitimacy. Bremer could have easily went along with proposals by the governing puppet council to diffuse the crisis, but he is too stubborn. When asked on Meet the Press last Sunday to identify the party to which powers will be transferred at end of June, he answered by stressing that this was a good question. He has no clue. Rumsfeld wants to convince himself and the public: that it is all an outside conspiracy; that all Iraqis are solidly on US side, except the "thugs, criminals, and terrorists." If they believe that, the situation is worse than I had thought. If they do not believe that, they are only deceiving the US public. Watch Bush today repeat this cliched answer. It is all about an international conspiracy; I wonder if they will blame Zarqawi again. I have not heard his name in a while. How can they link him to the Shi`ites knowing his bigoted anti-Shi`ism, which he shares with Bin Laden. We are witnessing the Lebanonization of Iraq. And when militias take over, it takes years, or decades to dislodge them.